Australians will have to wait at least another month to learn how many jobs have so far been lost to the coronavirus – but early signs of its economic impacts have already shown up in official ABS data.
The nation’s unemployment rate increased from 5.1 per cent to 5.2 per cent in March, according to seasonally adjusted estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Full-time employment fell by 400 to 8,882,200 people and part-time employment increased by 6400 to 4,135,400 people.
Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 8.6 million hours to 1,784.9 million hours – but the number of jobless Australians jumped 20,300 to 718,600, and the nation’s underemployment rate increased from 8.7 per cent to 8.8 per cent.
Economists have said the data does not capture the full extent of the economic destruction already caused by the coronavirus, as the ABS survey was conducted between March 8 and March 21.
“As it does every month, the ABS asked about 66,000 people whether they had done paid work in the previous week – so in this case, from 1 to 15 March,” write Grattan Institute economists Brendan Coates and Matt Cowgill.
“But – if we use Google Trends data as our guide – the labour market didn’t hit the wall until late March, after the ABS had finished collecting its data for the month.”
They added: “The number of Australians searching Google for the word ‘Centrelink’ was more or less in line with normal levels through March – until the 22nd, when searches shot sharply up, rising even further the following day.”
The sharp jump in ‘Centrelink’ Google searches coincides with the National Cabinet’s decision to impose tougher restrictions on the hospitality industries – with cafes and restaurants restricted to takeaway services on March 23.
Treasury’s own forecasts predict unemployment will rise to 10 per cent within the next three months as businesses close their doors and consumer confidence falls off a cliff.
It said the jobless rate would have tripled to 15 per cent had it not been for the government’s $130 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.
But some economists warn that Treasury’s figures paint an optimistic picture of the labour market as they do not take into account underemployment – when an adult is working less than 35 hours a week but wants to work more.
Independent economist Stephen Koukoulas told The New Daily Australia’s underemployment rate, which last year never dropped below 8.1 per cent, could conceivably rise to 15 per cent during the coronavirus crisis.
More to come.
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