New South Wales residents are being urged to stay calm and follow the lockdown rules as the state fights to contain its escalating COVID outbreak.
“We can control this,” Deakin University’s chair in epidemiology Catherine Bennett said.
“If people believe it’s doable and know what it takes, they will make it happen. This will turn around. And it could turn around in weeks, not months.”
History shows we’ve done it before, she said.
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Through social distancing, mass testing and mask wearing, Victoria managed to conquer its deadly second wave last year – and that was when daily case numbers were much higher than in NSW.
On July 11 last year, Victoria recorded 216 new coronavirus cases.
It was only after daily cases hit a peak of 723 on July 30 that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews introduced a statewide lockdown on August 2.
By that time, there were 5385 active coronavirus cases in Victoria.
The situation is different in NSW, which recorded 77 new locally acquired cases on Sunday, bringing the state’s total to 514.
It’s not too late to turn it around, virologist Ian Mackay said, an associate professor at the University of Queensland’s school of medicine.
“I don’t see why NSW can’t do the same thing (as Victoria) when it’s having far fewer cases per day at the moment,” he told The New Daily.
But it won’t come easy, he warned.
“The lockdown is going to go for longer than we’d like now, because of the rate of new cases – and we still haven’t peaked yet,” he said.
Professor Bennett said one major difference between the two outbreaks was that COVID had infiltrated lots of “critical workplaces” in Victoria, such as abattoirs and aged-care homes.
“Casual workers can take the virus across multiple workplaces, which is the risk,” she said.
“I think if NSW can keep it out of the workplaces, then casual workers won’t become a driver of this.”
The Delta difference
Of course, there is another major variable between Victoria’s second wave and NSW’s current outbreak.
The state is dealing with Delta, a highly transmissible variant of concern.
“Every new case can quickly become four or five in a Delta outbreak, because everyone gets infected in their households,” Professor Bennett said.
“It wasn’t as rapid as that in Melbourne last year.”
However, Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an epidemiologist at UNSW and member of the World Health Organisation’s COVID response team, said one factor remained the same.
Both lockdowns were introduced far too late, she said.
“I could tell Victoria was entering a very dangerous phase as early as May 25,” she said, pointing to modelling that showed Victoria’s 14-day rolling average was then sitting at 115.
“It was a red flag … The case numbers didn’t start peaking until July and Victorians were waiting way too long to start actually wearing face masks.”
Although Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews was late to introduce a hard lockdown, she said, when he did, the messaging was clear.
“In NSW, they’ve left it too late and now they’re asking the community to co-operate, but they’re sending mixed messages,” Professor McLaws said.
“If retail is open and school holidays are on, people are going to go to the shopping mall to get a bit of a break. It’s not the fault of the community – they’re not outbreak managers.
“The NSW government gave them options. You don’t give people options when you’re dealing with Delta.”
The post ‘We can control this’: How NSW outbreak compares to Victoria’s second wave appeared first on The New Daily.
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